Sunday, 5 December 2010

'Sketchy Predictions'

An article authored by Thomas Frey (senior futurist at the DaVinci Institute)  posted on 'impact lab' (A website dedicated to looking at future human experiences) and 'futurist speaker' lays out predictions of what the future will hold for the automotive industry and the developments that will change the world.

The article, written in 2006 makes the following predictions:
  • By 2010 personal transportation devices will be all the rage with electric shoes with built-in roller-skates gaining much of the attention.  After nine years of heavy media coverage, the Segway Human Transporter will begin to gain serious market share.
  • By 2015 traditional gas-powered autos will start to decline with electric automobiles and hybrids taking up most of the slack.
  • By 2020 we will see an industry being built up around self-illuminating highways – highways that glow in the dark.  Glow roads will be shown to improve driving safety at night and reduce the need for streetlights.
  • By 2025 a first attempt at launching the space elevator will fail, setting the industry back a decade.

It should be noted, that whilst predictions for 2015 seem as though they will be relatively accurate, the predictions laid out for 2010 are incredibly inaccurate.

With the most common advance in shoe/rollerblade hybrids that has had a major impact on any market are Heelys. Alongside this, the fact that Segways are effectively illegal as a faesible method of transport in many countries throughout Europe and some states of America. 

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